This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are at least two consecutive quarters in 2026 in which the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in U.S. real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is negative, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution will be based on the BEA's Advance GDP Estimate for the final quarter of 2026, or any earlier release that confirms two consecutive negative quarters within the 2025-2026 window. Revisions issued after settlement have no effect on the settled outcome.

In the event of an event cancellation, all open positions will be settled at the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) at the time of cancellation. Please note that settlement at VWAP may result in a return higher or lower than your original stake. For more information see here

The official resolution sources are the agencies listed in Rule 14.67(c) in the CDNA Rulebook, which can be found here. The notice of submission pursuant to CFTC regulation 40.2(a) for Rule 14.67 can be found here.

Trading is temporarily paused during scheduled maintenance periods.

Settlement Source: Rule 14.67(c) in the CDNA Rulebook

Proposed Settlement: Wednesday, March 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET