NFL Week 4 Preview 2026
October 1, 202612 min readUpdated October 9, 2026
Denver at San Francisco is the tightest market on the Week 4 board, and the only game where a 3-0 home team is priced close to a coin flip. Across the rest of the slate, prices and records keep disagreeing: two unbeaten teams meet in Las Vegas, an 0-3 Houston team is the home favorite, and a 1-2 Rams side is priced ahead of Philadelphia in Philadelphia.
Every game on the slate is below. The at-a-glance table runs in kickoff order; the matchup sections run from the closest market to the most lopsided. Every comparison in this article — closest market, lowest total, most lopsided favorite — is measured across the 16 Week 4 games listed on Fanatics Markets, using implied probabilities as of Thursday, October 1, 2026. Records and scoring averages are through Week 3 and come from published NFL standings.
The Slate at a Glance
| Matchup | Market favorite | Read | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers at Browns | Steelers 58% | Toss-up | Thu 8:15 PM |
| Colts at Commanders | Colts 64% | Lean | Sun 9:30 AM |
| Cowboys at Texans | Texans 60% | Lean | Sun 1:00 PM |
| Titans at Ravens | Ravens 86% | Lopsided | Sun 1:00 PM |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Packers 63% | Lean | Sun 1:00 PM |
| Patriots at Bills | Bills 74% | Clear favorite | Sun 1:00 PM |
| Rams at Eagles |
All kickoffs are Eastern. Rank is by how close the two sides are priced.
1. Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers
Rank 1 of 16. Market favorite: San Francisco 57%. Read: Toss-up.
San Francisco is the market's narrowest favorite of the week, with Denver at 43%. This is the closest moneyline on the board. The spread market centers on San Francisco -2.5 and total points sits around 47.5.
The Numbers
San Francisco is 3-0 with the best point differential in the league at plus 48, averaging 32.7 points per game and allowing 16.7. Denver is 2-1 at 20.0 points per game scored and 23.3 allowed.
Follow the Broncos at 49ers market.
2. Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants
Rank 2 of 16. Market favorite: Arizona 57%. Read: Toss-up.
Arizona is the market's slim road favorite with New York at 44%, the second-closest price of the week. The spread market centers on Arizona -2.5 and total points around 44.5.
The Numbers
New York is 2-1 while averaging 15.3 points per game and allowing 18.3. Arizona is 1-2 at 21.0 scored and 27.0 allowed. Both rosters have taken hits: New York lost quarterback Jaxson Dart to season-ending knee surgery and edge rusher Brian Burns to a torn ACL, while Arizona has cornerback Will Johnson and running back Trey Benson on injured reserve for the season.
View the Cardinals at Giants market.
3. Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Rank 3 of 16. Market favorite: New Orleans 57%. Read: Toss-up.
New Orleans is the market's home favorite with Atlanta at 44%, the closest price in a standalone national window this week (Monday night). The spread market centers on New Orleans -2.5 and total points around 47.5.
The Market
Two 1-2 teams in a division game, priced nearly even. The Monday night slot gives this one the week's last word on the NFC South.
The Numbers
New Orleans averages 27.0 points per game and allows 27.7; Atlanta averages 17.0 and allows 22.7. New Orleans has thinned out on offense, with left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. on injured reserve after ankle surgery and running back Travis Etienne Jr. placed on injured reserve this week. Atlanta is without cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr., also on injured reserve.
See the Falcons at Saints market.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Rank 4 of 16. Market favorite: Pittsburgh 58%. Read: Toss-up.
Pittsburgh is the market's road favorite with Cleveland at 43%, in the week's Thursday opener. The spread market centers on Pittsburgh -2.5, and total points is the lowest on the entire board at around 37.5.
The Market
An AFC North game between two 2-1 teams, priced tight and priced low. The total points market is forecasting the quietest scoring environment of the week.
The Numbers
Cleveland averages 18.0 points per game and allows 23.7; Pittsburgh averages 17.7 and allows 20.0. Cleveland is without defensive end Alex Wright, out for the season with a ruptured Achilles, and running back Dylan Sampson, on injured reserve since mid-September. Pittsburgh has safety DeShon Elliott on injured reserve and traded cornerback Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas.
Follow the Steelers at Browns market.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Rank 5 of 16. Market favorite: Cincinnati 58%. Read: Toss-up.
Cincinnati is the market's home favorite with Jacksonville at 43%. Total points is the highest on the board at around 51.5, alongside Lions at Panthers, and the spread market centers on Cincinnati -2.5.
The Numbers
Jacksonville is 2-1 at plus 46 on point differential and allows 12.0 points per game, the fewest on the slate. Cincinnati is 2-1, averaging 26.7 points per game and allowing 21.0. Cincinnati is without Andrei Iosivas, on injured reserve with a thumb injury for at least four weeks.
View the Jaguars at Bengals market.
6. Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
Rank 6 of 16. Market favorite: Houston 60%. Read: Lean.
Houston is the market's home favorite at 60% despite an 0-3 start, with Dallas at 41%. The spread market centers on Houston -3.5 and total points around 48.5.
The Numbers
Dallas averages 29.3 points per game and allows 27.3. Houston averages 18.0 and allows 25.0. Houston's receiving group is thin: Jayden Higgins is out for the season with a torn ACL and Tank Dell is on injured reserve, along with linebacker Henry To'oTo'o. Dallas has safeties Jalen Thompson and P.J. Locke on injured reserve, though it added cornerback Joey Porter Jr. this week in a trade.
See the Cowboys at Texans market.
7. Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Rank 7 of 16. Market favorite: Los Angeles 62%. Read: Lean.
Los Angeles is the market's road favorite in Philadelphia, with the Eagles at 39% — another price that cuts against the standings, since the Rams are 1-2 and the Eagles 2-1. Philadelphia averages 18.3 points per game and allows 23.0; the Rams are at 20.3 and 21.0. Los Angeles is without edge rusher Myles Garrett, on injured reserve after knee surgery with a recovery timeline of roughly six weeks, and Philadelphia has guard Landon Dickerson on injured reserve. The spread market centers on Los Angeles -3.5.
Follow the Rams at Eagles market.
8. New York Jets at Chicago Bears
Rank 8 of 16. Market favorite: Chicago 62%. Read: Lean.
Chicago is the market's home favorite with the Jets at 39%. Chicago is 2-1 at plus 36 on point differential, averaging 29.7 points per game and allowing 17.7; the Jets are 1-2 at 21.3 and 20.3. Total points sits around 42.5.
See the Jets at Bears market.
9. Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rank 9 of 16. Market favorite: Green Bay 63%. Read: Lean.
Green Bay is the market's road favorite with Tampa Bay at 38%, in a matchup of a 1-2 team and an 0-3 team. Green Bay averages 18.7 points per game and allows 30.3; Tampa Bay is at 20.7 and 26.3. Green Bay lost wide receiver Jayden Reed for the season to neck surgery and still has edge rusher Micah Parsons on the physically-unable-to-perform list. Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield is out at least three weeks with a dislocated thumb, and wide receiver Jalen McMillan is on injured reserve. Total points sits around 38.5, among the lowest on the board.
View the Packers at Buccaneers market.
10. Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders
Rank 10 of 16. Market favorite: Indianapolis 64%. Read: Lean.
Indianapolis is the market's favorite with Washington at 37%, in the week's London game at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Both teams are 1-2, and both have been scored on freely: Washington allows 30.7 points per game, Indianapolis 30.3. Washington averages 25.0 points per game, Indianapolis 24.0. Washington has left tackle Laremy Tunsil, defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton and linebacker Leo Chenal on injured reserve; Indianapolis is without wide receiver Alec Pierce, also on injured reserve. Total points sits around 48.5.
Follow the Colts at Commanders market.
11. Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Rank 11 of 16. Market favorite: Detroit 65%. Read: Lean.
Detroit is the market's road favorite with Carolina at 36%, in the Sunday night window. Total points is the highest on the board at around 51.5, and the scoring profiles explain it: Detroit averages 31.0 points per game and allows 31.7, while Carolina averages 29.7 and allows 27.7. Detroit is without running back Isiah Pacheco, on injured reserve after back surgery with a recovery timeline of roughly 12 weeks, and cornerback Avonte Maddox, out for the season. Carolina placed cornerback Jaycee Horn on injured reserve this week with a torn quad.
See the Lions at Panthers market.
12. Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Rank 12 of 16. Market favorite: Kansas City 66%. Read: Lean.
Kansas City is the market's road favorite with Las Vegas at 35%, the only Week 4 game between two unbeaten teams. Both are 3-0 and both have scored exactly 88 points through three games; Kansas City has allowed 50, Las Vegas 54. Las Vegas is without wide receivers Jack Bech and Dont'e Thornton Jr., both on injured reserve. The spread market centers on Kansas City -4.5 and total points around 47.5.
Follow the Chiefs at Raiders market.
13. New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Rank 13 of 16. Market favorite: Buffalo 74%. Read: Clear favorite.
Buffalo is the market's clear home favorite with New England at 27%. Buffalo is 3-0 and averaging 33.7 points per game, the most on the slate. New England is 1-2, averaging 12.0, and is playing without wide receiver A.J. Brown, on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain and not eligible to return before Week 6. Total points sits around 48.5.
View the Patriots at Bills market.
14. Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
Rank 14 of 16. Market favorite: Seattle 75%. Read: Clear favorite.
Seattle is the market's clear home favorite with the Chargers at 25%. Seattle is 2-1 and allowing 16.7 points per game while averaging 25.0. The Chargers are 0-3 with a minus 32 point differential, and their line and receiving group have been hit hard: tight end David Njoku, center Tyler Biadasz and left tackle Trey Pipkins III are all on injured reserve. The spread market centers on Seattle -7.5 and total points around 42.5.
Follow the Chargers at Seahawks market.
15. Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
Rank 15 of 16. Market favorite: Minnesota 84%. Read: Lopsided.
Minnesota is the market's lopsided home favorite with Miami at 17%. Minnesota is 3-0 and allowing 13.7 points per game. Miami is 0-3 with the league's worst point differential at minus 50, and lost running back De'Von Achane for the season to a torn ACL. The spread market centers on Minnesota -10.5 and total points around 38.5.
See the Dolphins at Vikings market.
16. Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Rank 16 of 16. Market favorite: Baltimore 86%. Read: Lopsided.
Baltimore is the market's most lopsided favorite of the week with Tennessee at 15%. Baltimore is 2-1 and averaging 30.7 points per game; Tennessee is 0-3 and averaging 12.3 while allowing 19.7. Tennessee has guards Jackson Slater and Fernando Carmona on injured reserve, and Baltimore is without wide receiver Ja'Kobi Lane and center Danny Pinter. The spread market centers on Baltimore -11.5 and total points around 42.5.
Follow the Titans at Ravens market.
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See the Week 4 Slate
Every market above can be found on the NFL slate, from the Thursday opener in Cleveland through Monday night in New Orleans.
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