Week 6 Monday Night Football Preview: Buffalo vs Los Angeles
October 12, 20265 min readUpdated October 12, 2026
As of October 11 at 1:48 PM ET, the Monday Night Football market implies Los Angeles at 62% to win at home, with Buffalo at 38%.
That price sits on a real clash of profiles, with Buffalo arriving 3-1 and scoring 31.8 points per game, while Los Angeles has allowed 145.5 passing yards per game through four games.
The matchup at a glance
| Matchup | Market favorite | Market Margin | Kickoff (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills at Rams | Rams 62% | Lean | Mon 8:15 |
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
The market
Los Angeles is the market's implied favorite at 62%, with Buffalo at 39%, a lean rather than a clear favorite. Los Angeles has split what it has played at home: it beat New York 28-6 at SoFi Stadium on September 22 and lost 27-7 there to San Francisco on September 11.
Buffalo's one loss also came at home, 29-26 to New England on October 4, ending a run of three straight wins. Its only road game so far was a 36-31 win at Houston on September 13. Los Angeles won 24-20 at Philadelphia on October 4, the same day Buffalo lost.
The numbers
Season figures are as of October 11. Buffalo is 3-1, scoring 31.8 points per game and conceding 26.8. Los Angeles is 2-2, scoring 21.3 and conceding 20.8. The same split shows up on third down: Buffalo is converting 53%, Los Angeles 43%.
The defensive lines are where the matchup gets interesting. Los Angeles has allowed 145.5 passing yards and 102 rushing yards per game. Buffalo has allowed 256.3 passing and 116 rushing. On the other side of the ball, Los Angeles throws for 290.3 yards per game to Buffalo's 247.3, while Buffalo runs for 139 to Los Angeles' 126.8.
The most recent individual lines, all from October 4: Matthew Stafford threw for 317 yards on 51 attempts with two interceptions, Puka Nacua caught nine passes for 125 yards, and Kyren Williams ran for 80 yards and two touchdowns while catching 10 passes for 67 yards. For Buffalo the same day, Josh Allen threw for 253 yards with one touchdown and one interception, James Cook III ran for 75 yards and a touchdown, and Khalil Shakir caught seven passes for 82 yards.
Reading those two numbers together — 145.5 passing yards allowed against 31.8 points scored — our read is that the forecast turns on whether Buffalo's offense is the one that finally moves the ball through the air on Los Angeles.
The player markets
The matchup page lists 95 markets across 37 types, read on October 11. Three of them sit on players already named above. The highest of the three is Kyren Williams to score a touchdown, at an implied probability of 59% as of October 11 at 1:48 PM ET.
James Cook III to score a touchdown carries an implied probability of 51%. That market needs Cook to finish a drive himself, and he has three rushing touchdowns on 70 carries this season, one of them in his 12-carry, 75-yard game on October 4.
Josh Allen to score a touchdown carries an implied probability of 52%. Allen's route to it is his legs rather than his arm: seven rushing touchdowns on 33 carries this season, including one against New England on October 4.
See markets for Bills at Rams.
New to event contracts?
Fanatics Markets provides a place where you can trade event contracts on real-world outcomes. A price is the market's implied probability — a 62-cent contract implies about a 62% chance. If the outcome happens, the contract pays $1. If it does not, the contract pays nothing and you lose the 62 cents you paid.
See the Monday night markets
Buffalo at Los Angeles kicks off Monday, October 12 at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN. See markets for Bills at Rams, or see the full NFL slate.
Not available in all states. 21+. Any trades shown are illustrations, not trade recommendations, and subject to change. Concerned about your trading? Get specialized support from Birches Health nationwide. Visit https://bircheshealth.com/fanatics-markets, call (833) 483-3838 or email [email protected].