NFL Week 5 Preview 2026
October 9, 202611 min readUpdated October 16, 2026
Sunday, October 11 runs thirteen games, from a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff in London to an 8:20 p.m. ET finish in Atlanta. As of October 9 at 3 PM ET, Seattle is the implied favorite at 62% against San Francisco in the slate's highest-ranked game, while Chicago sits at 53% at Lambeau Field, the tightest price of the day. Games below are ranked by audience demand plus how close each market is.
The slate at a glance
| # | Matchup | Market favorite | Read | Kickoff (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49ers at Seahawks | Seahawks 62% | Lean | Sun 4:25 p.m. |
| 2 | Raiders at Patriots | Patriots 64% | Lean | Sun 1:00 p.m. |
| 3 | Bears at Packers | Bears 53% | Toss-up | Sun 1:00 p.m. |
| 4 | Colts at Steelers | Steelers 59% | Lean | Sun 1:00 p.m. |
| 5 | Eagles at Jaguars | Jaguars 77% | Clear favorite | Sun 9:30 a.m. |
| 6 | Giants at Commanders | Commanders 63% | Lean | Sun 1:00 p.m. |
| 7 | Vikings at Saints |
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Rank 1 · Seahawks 62% · Lean
The market
Seattle is the market's implied favorite at 62% at Lumen Field, with San Francisco at 39%. It is the top-ranked game on the Sunday board on demand and market closeness together.
The numbers
As of October 9, Seattle is allowing 144.8 passing yards per game, the fewest of any team on Sunday's slate, and beat the Los Angeles Chargers 30-23 on October 4. San Francisco is 4-0, scoring 30.5 points per game and converting 57% on third down, the best third-down rate on the slate. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 481 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 42 targets this season; Brock Purdy has 1,007 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception.
See markets for 49ers vs Seahawks.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Rank 2 · Patriots 64% · Lean
The market
New England is the market's implied favorite at 64% at Gillette Stadium, with Las Vegas at 37%.
The numbers
New England beat Buffalo 29-26 on October 4, allowing Drake Maye to throw for 269 yards and three touchdowns, while allowing 189.8 passing yards per game across the season. Las Vegas has scored 28.8 points per game over its last four, and Kirk Cousins has 1,026 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions, though the Raiders lost 27-30 to Kansas City on October 4. Maye also has seven interceptions this season against four touchdown passes.
See markets for Raiders vs Patriots.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Rank 3 · Bears 53% · Toss-up
The market
Chicago is the market's implied favorite at 53% on the road, with Green Bay at 49%, the closest pair of prices on Sunday's board.
The numbers
Chicago is running for 196.3 yards per game, the most of any team on the slate, and beat the New York Jets 23-12 on October 4, with D'Andre Swift at 311 rushing yards and three touchdowns this season. Green Bay is gaining 58 rushing yards per game, the fewest on the slate, allowing 139.3 rushing yards per game and converting 26% on third down, but it beat Tampa Bay 17-14 on October 4 and Jordan Love has 1,041 passing yards with eight touchdowns.
See markets for Bears vs Packers.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Rank 4 · Steelers 59% · Lean
The market
Pittsburgh is the market's implied favorite at 59% at Acrisure Stadium, with Indianapolis at 42%.
The numbers
Jonathan Taylor ran for 95 yards and two touchdowns in Indianapolis's 30-13 win at Washington on October 4 and has 353 rushing yards with six rushing touchdowns this season. Pittsburgh is allowing 112.8 rushing yards per game and lost 24-27 at Cleveland on October 2, with Aaron Rodgers at 999 passing yards, seven touchdowns and four interceptions. The matchup page shows a 51% implied probability that Jaylen Warren scores a touchdown; Warren has 309 rushing yards on 55 carries and 143 receiving yards.
See markets for Colts vs Steelers.
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars
Rank 5 · Jaguars 77% · Clear favorite
The market
Jacksonville is the market's implied favorite at 77% for the 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, with Philadelphia at 24%.
The numbers
Jacksonville is 3-1, scoring 26 points per game and conceding 13.3, converting 51% on third down and allowing 74.3 rushing yards per game; Trevor Lawrence has 843 passing yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. Philadelphia is averaging 160.8 passing yards per game, and Jalen Hurts threw for 93 yards on 27 attempts in a 20-24 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on October 4. The matchup page shows a 47% implied probability that Bhayshul Tuten scores a touchdown; Tuten has 277 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on 60 carries and ran for 73 yards on October 4.
See markets for Eagles vs Jaguars.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Rank 6 · Commanders 63% · Lean
Washington is the market's implied favorite at 63% at Northwest Stadium, with New York at 37%. Washington lost 13-30 to Indianapolis on October 4 and is converting 31% on third down; New York is 3-1 after a 36-24 win over Arizona on October 4, in which Malik Nabers caught six passes for 112 yards and a touchdown.
See markets for Giants vs Commanders.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Rank 7 · Vikings 56% · Toss-up
Minnesota is the market's implied favorite at 56% in the Caesars Superdome, with New Orleans at 44%. Minnesota is 4-0 and conceding 12.8 points per game, the fewest on Sunday's slate; New Orleans is allowing 147.8 rushing yards per game, the most on the slate, and lost 24-45 to Atlanta on Monday night.
See markets for Vikings vs Saints.
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
Rank 8 · Jets 56% · Toss-up
The Jets are the market's implied favorite at 56% at MetLife Stadium, with Cleveland at 45%. Cleveland is 3-1 after beating Pittsburgh 27-24 on October 2, with Deshaun Watson at 855 passing yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions; the Jets are allowing 193.3 passing yards per game but lost 12-23 at Chicago on October 4.
See markets for Browns vs Jets.
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
Rank 9 · Falcons 62% · Lean
Atlanta is the market’s implied favorite at 62% for Sunday night’s 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff, with Baltimore at 39%. Baltimore has ruled out Lamar Jackson with an ankle injury, and Tyler Huntley will start after throwing for 63 yards in relief on October 4. Atlanta is allowing 48.3 rushing yards per game, the fewest on the slate, and Bijan Robinson ran for 145 yards and two touchdowns in a 45-24 win over New Orleans on Monday; Baltimore is running for 153.5 yards per game and Derrick Henry has 374 rushing yards with seven touchdowns.
See markets for Ravens vs Falcons.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Rank 10 · Broncos 63% · Lean
Denver is the market's implied favorite at 63% at SoFi Stadium, with Los Angeles at 38%. The Chargers have lost each of their last four and are conceding 26.5 points per game, with Justin Herbert at four touchdown passes and six interceptions; Denver lost 14-24 at San Francisco on October 4 and is allowing 142.8 rushing yards per game.
See markets for Broncos vs Chargers.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Rank 11 · Bengals 75% · Clear favorite
Cincinnati is the market's implied favorite at 75% at Hard Rock Stadium, with Miami at 27%. Miami has lost each of its last four, scoring 11.5 points per game with four touchdowns in four games, the fewest on Sunday's slate; Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards in Cincinnati's 17-22 loss to Jacksonville on October 4.
See markets for Bengals vs Dolphins.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Rank 12 · Lions 70% · Lean
Detroit is the market's implied favorite at 70% at State Farm Stadium, with Arizona at 30%. Detroit is gaining 287.3 passing yards per game and Jared Goff threw for 412 yards in a 26-32 loss at Carolina on October 5, but the Lions are allowing 304 passing yards per game, the most on the slate; Arizona is conceding 29.3 points per game.
See markets for Lions vs Cardinals.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Rank 13 · Texans 77% · Clear favorite
Houston is the market's implied favorite at 77% at Nissan Stadium, with Tennessee at 23%. Houston is 0-4, with C.J. Stroud throwing for 347 yards and two touchdowns and Nico Collins catching seven passes for 118 yards and two touchdowns in a 30-34 loss to Dallas on October 4; Tennessee is also 0-4 and scoring 13.8 points per game.
See markets for Texans vs Titans.
New to event contracts?
Fanatics Markets provides a place where you can trade event contracts on real-world outcomes. A price is the market's implied probability; a 62-cent contract implies about a 62% chance. If the outcome happens, the contract pays $1. If it does not, the contract pays nothing and you lose the 62 cents you paid.
See the Week 5 markets
Every price above is the market's forecast at a moment and will move before Sunday, October 11. See the full NFL slate, or see markets for 49ers vs Seahawks and Bears vs Packers.
Not available in all states. 21+. Any trades shown are illustrations, not trade recommendations, and subject to change. Concerned about your trading? Get specialized support from Birches Health nationwide. Visit https://bircheshealth.com/fanatics-markets, call (833) 483-3838 or email [email protected].