Week 5 Thursday Night Football Preview: Tampa Bay vs Dallas
October 7, 20264 min readUpdated October 14, 2026
Dallas is the market's implied favorite for Thursday Night Football in Week 5. As of October 7 at 5:35 PM ET, the market's implied probability sits at 80% for the Cowboys and 21% for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who kick off in Arlington on Thursday, October 8 at 8:15 p.m. ET. Here is where that price sits and the numbers behind it.
The slate at a glance
| # | Matchup | Market favorite | Read | Kickoff (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buccaneers at Cowboys | Cowboys 80% | Clear favorite | Thu 8:15 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
The market
Dallas is the market's implied favorite at home at 80%, and Tampa Bay is priced at 21%. That lands in clear-favorite territory rather than a toss-up. In our read, the gap tracks the two teams' seasons so far: Dallas is 2-2 and Tampa Bay is 0-4 through four games.
Availability
Tampa Bay has ruled out quarterback Baker Mayfield (right thumb), safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib), cornerback Benjamin Morrison (quad) and linebacker SirVocea Dennis (ankle/foot) for Thursday. With Mayfield out, undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes his second career start. For Dallas, linebacker DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) will miss his fourth straight game.
The numbers
As of October 6, Dallas has scored 30.5 points per game and conceded 28, while Tampa Bay has scored 19 and conceded 24. Dallas is converting 51.0% on third down; Tampa Bay is converting 34.5%.
Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards and a touchdown in a 34-30 win at Houston on October 4, and CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown in the same game. Jalon Daniels threw for 148 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in Tampa Bay's 17-14 loss to Green Bay that day, and has thrown three interceptions this season.
One matchup number runs the other way. Dallas has allowed 601 rushing yards in four games, and Tampa Bay has run for 424, with Bucky Irving accounting for 241 of them on 56 carries. In our read, that is Tampa Bay's clearest route to keeping the game inside the 21% the market gives it.
The matchup page also lists player markets. Javonte Williams to score a touchdown is priced at 66% and CeeDee Lamb to score a touchdown at 48%; each settles yes only if that player reaches the end zone at least once on Thursday, October 8, and pays nothing if that player does not. Williams has five rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown in four games, including three rushing scores at Houston on October 4. Lamb has four receiving touchdowns this season. Those are season totals offered as context, not a view on how either market will settle.
See markets for Buccaneers vs Cowboys.
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Fanatics Markets provides a place where you can trade event contracts on real-world outcomes. A price is the market's implied probability — an 80-cent contract implies about an 80% chance. If the outcome happens, the contract pays $1. If it does not, the contract pays nothing and you lose the 80 cents you paid.
See the Thursday night markets
The Thursday night market is accessible through Fanatics Markets: Buccaneers vs Cowboys, or see the full NFL slate.
Frequently asked questions
When is Buccaneers vs Cowboys?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday, October 8 at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Where is Buccaneers vs Cowboys?
Buccaneers at Cowboys on Thursday, October 8 is at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
What channel is Buccaneers vs Cowboys on?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys on Thursday, October 8 is on Amazon Prime Video.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Buccaneers against the Cowboys?
Jalon Daniels starts for Tampa Bay on Thursday, October 8, with Baker Mayfield ruled out with a right thumb injury.
Who is favored to win Buccaneers vs Cowboys?
As of October 7 at 5:35 PM ET, the market's implied probability favors the Dallas Cowboys at 80%, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers priced at 21%, for the game on Thursday, October 8.
Who does the market favor to score a touchdown in Buccaneers vs Cowboys?
As of October 7 at 5:35 PM ET, the market's highest implied probability of scoring a touchdown in Buccaneers at Cowboys is Javonte Williams at 66%.
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