NFL Week 6 Preview 2026
October 16, 202614 min readUpdated October 16, 2026
The Week 6 slate starts with Texans at Jaguars in London and ends with Dallas at Green Bay at 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 18 from Lambeau Field. In our read it tops the rankings below: the Sunday night window paired with a market that leaves very little between the two sides.
As of October 16 at 10:24 AM ET, Green Bay is the market's implied favorite at 53%. Five of the twelve Sunday games carry an implied favorite at 56% or lower.
Games are ordered by audience pull plus how close the market is, so a near-even forecast climbs and a one-sided one falls. Every section below opens with the market's implied favorite, its probability and a one-word read.
The slate at a glance
| # | Matchup | Market favorite | Read | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys at Packers | Packers 53% | Toss-up | Sun 8:20 PM ET |
| 2 | Panthers at Eagles | Panthers 64% | Lean | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| 3 | Steelers at Buccaneers | Steelers 56% | Toss-up | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| 4 | Saints at Giants | Saints 51% | Toss-up | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| 5 | Jets at Patriots | Patriots 76% | Clear favorite | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
Rank 1 of 12 · Market favorite: Green Bay 53% · Read: Toss-up
Green Bay hosts Dallas in the Sunday night window after beating Chicago 31-7 at Lambeau Field on October 11. Dallas arrives off a 16-24 home loss to Tampa Bay on October 9 and is 2-3 across its last five. Both teams move the ball through the air at almost the same rate, which is what keeps the forecast so tight.
In our read, the game turns on a single structural mismatch: Green Bay's ground game is the weakest part of its profile, and Dallas has been the easiest team on this slate to run against.
See markets for the game on the Cowboys at Packers page.
The numbers
Season figures below are as of October 16. Green Bay averages 271 passing yards per game and Dallas averages 269.6, within two yards of each other.
The separation sits on the ground: Green Bay averages 60.4 rushing yards per game, while Dallas allows 168.4 rushing yards per game. Our take: that is the widest gap between a weakness and a soft spot anywhere on the slate, and it points at the Packers' least productive unit getting its friendliest matchup of the season.
Jordan Love threw for 367 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago on October 11, with Christian Watson catching six passes for 143 yards and two touchdowns. Dak Prescott threw for 316 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions on October 9.
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
Rank 2 of 12 · Market favorite: Carolina 64% · Read: Lean
Carolina visits Philadelphia as the market's implied favorite, one of six Sunday games where the road team carries the higher probability.
Philadelphia will be without quarterback Jalen Hurts, whom the Eagles ruled out on October 15 because of a superficial blood clot in his calf; Tanner McKee is expected to start in his place. In our read, that news is a big part of why the market has Carolina at 64%. Philadelphia has also lost three in a row, most recently 17-19 at Jacksonville on October 11, and has scored 18.4 points per game over its last five.
See markets for Panthers at Eagles.
The numbers
Carolina averages 301.3 passing yards per game through four games; Philadelphia averages 170.6. Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns against Detroit on October 5. The counterweight is Carolina's run defense, which allows 156.5 rushing yards per game. However, Philadelphia averages just 91.6 rushing yards per game, so the Eagles would have to lean on a part of their offense that has not carried them yet.
Chuba Hubbard to score a touchdown is priced at 51%. Hubbard ran for 122 yards and two touchdowns against Detroit on October 5 and has three rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns this season; the market settles yes if he scores a touchdown by run or by catch, and no if he does not.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rank 3 of 12 · Market favorite: Pittsburgh 56% · Read: Toss-up
Pittsburgh travels to Raymond James Stadium at 1:00 p.m. ET as the narrow implied favorite, having beaten Indianapolis 34-22 at home on October 11. Tampa Bay won 24-16 at Dallas on October 9 but is 1-4 over its last five.
See markets for Steelers at Buccaneers.
The numbers
Tampa Bay averages 133 rushing yards per game against 173.4 passing, and Pittsburgh allows 103.4 rushing yards per game.
Bucky Irving ran for 165 yards and a touchdown at Dallas on October 9. Aaron Rodgers threw for 235 yards and three touchdowns against Indianapolis on October 11, with Pat Freiermuth catching five passes for 44 yards and two touchdowns.
Jaylen Warren to score a touchdown is priced at 44%. Warren ran for 101 yards and a touchdown and caught six passes for 87 yards and a touchdown on October 11. Both of his season touchdowns came in that single game, so the market needs last week's goal-line role to repeat rather than his volume alone.
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
Rank 4 of 12 · Market favorite: New Orleans 51% · Read: Toss-up
New Orleans visits MetLife Stadium with the slimmest implied edge on the slate. New York is 3-1-1 over its last five and tied Washington 27-27 on October 11; New Orleans is 1-4 over the same stretch. By our read, the market is pricing the Giants' recent steadiness against New Orleans' recent form and finding almost nothing between them.
See markets for Saints at Giants.
The numbers
New Orleans has conceded 30.2 points per game across its last five and allows 148.8 rushing yards per game; New York averages 109 rushing yards per game.
Jameis Winston threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns on October 11, with Malik Nabers catching 11 passes for 121 yards and a touchdown and Isaiah Likely catching 11 for 94 yards and two touchdowns. Tyler Shough threw for 96 yards with two interceptions in the same window.
Cam Skattebo to score a touchdown is priced at 49%. Skattebo has 294 rushing yards on 81 carries with one rushing touchdown this season and ran 13 times for 59 yards on October 11. Reading that gap, his market looks more dependent on goal-line carries than on volume alone.
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Rank 5 of 12 · Market favorite: New England 76% · Read: Clear favorite
New England is the clearest home favorite of the early Sunday window after a 45-17 win over Las Vegas on October 11. The Jets beat Cleveland 17-12 on the same date and allow 175 passing yards per game.
See markets for Jets at Patriots.
The numbers
Drake Maye threw for 374 yards and four touchdowns and ran for 25 yards and a touchdown against Las Vegas on October 11, though he has seven interceptions on the season. New England averages 127.2 rushing yards per game and New York allows 118.
Braelon Allen to score a touchdown is priced at 42%. Allen ran for 116 yards and a touchdown on October 11 and has two rushing touchdowns on 57 carries this season, so the market asks for a repeat of last week's workload against a defense allowing 90.8 rushing yards per game.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Rank 6 of 12 · Market favorite: Chicago 51% · Read: Toss-up
Chicago is one of six road teams to carry the higher implied probability on Sunday, and the matchup is a straight collision of strengths: the Bears average 173.2 rushing yards per game, the most in the slate, and Atlanta allows 80.2, the fewest.
Atlanta lost 23-30 to Baltimore at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on October 12, while Chicago lost 7-31 at Green Bay on October 11.
See markets for Bears at Falcons.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Rank 7 of 12 · Market favorite: Kansas City 79% · Read: Clear favorite
Kansas City is 4-0 across its last four at 29.5 points per game and hosts a Chargers side that has lost five straight while averaging 16.8 points per game over that run, most recently 17-23 to Denver on October 11. We'd call that the widest form gap on the slate that the market has not labelled lopsided.
See markets for Chargers at Chiefs.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Rank 8 of 12 · Market favorite: Jacksonville 56% · Read: Toss-up
Jacksonville hosts Houston at Wembley Stadium in London at 9:30 a.m. ET, the earliest kickoff of the day. The Jaguars are 4-1 over their last five while conceding 14 points per game, and Trevor Lawrence threw for 331 yards and two touchdowns in a 19-17 win over Philadelphia on October 11. Houston arrives off a 26-3 win at Tennessee on the same date but is 1-4 across its last five.
See markets for Texans at Jaguars.
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders
Rank 9 of 12 · Market favorite: Buffalo 68% · Read: Lean
Buffalo has scored 32.8 points per game over its last five, the highest figure in the Sunday slate, and Josh Allen ran for 121 yards and a touchdown in a 37-34 win at the Rams on October 13, his eighth rushing touchdown of the season. Las Vegas allows 140.6 rushing yards per game and lost 17-45 at New England on October 11.
See markets for Bills at Raiders.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Rank 10 of 12 · Market favorite: Baltimore 62% · Read: Lean
Baltimore will be without quarterback Lamar Jackson for a second straight game after the Ravens ruled him out on October 16 with an ankle injury; Tyler Huntley is set to start again. In our read, that is why the market's forecast for Baltimore has slipped from 66% to 62%, though the Ravens remain the implied favorite. Baltimore averages 164.4 rushing yards per game and Derrick Henry has 476 rushing yards with seven rushing touchdowns, the part of the offense that does not depend on who is throwing.
Cleveland allows 117.4 rushing yards per game and lost 12-17 at the Jets on October 11, scoring 18.6 points per game over its last five.
See markets for Ravens at Browns.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Rank 11 of 12 · Market favorite: Indianapolis 75% · Read: Clear favorite
Tennessee has lost its first five games of the year while averaging 11.6 points per game, the lowest scoring rate on the slate, and was beaten 3-26 at home by Houston on October 11. Indianapolis is 2-3 over the same stretch and leans on Jonathan Taylor, who has 398 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns this season.
See markets for Titans at Colts.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Rank 12 of 12 · Market favorite: Los Angeles 88% · Read: Lopsided
Los Angeles carries the one lopsided forecast of the day. The Rams average 307.6 passing yards per game and allow 156.8, the lowest figure in the slate, with Matthew Stafford throwing for 383 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-37 loss to Buffalo on October 13. Arizona has conceded 32.4 points per game across its last five.
See markets for Cardinals at Rams.
New to event contracts?
Prices here are the market's implied probability of an outcome, quoted from 0 to 100 cents. A contract priced at 53 cents implies about a 53% chance. If the outcome happens, the contract pays $1. If it does not, the contract pays nothing and you lose the 53 cents you paid. Fanatics Markets provides a place where you can trade event contracts on real-world outcomes.
See the Week 6 markets
Every game above has its own page with game-winner and player markets. See markets for Cowboys at Packers, Panthers at Eagles and Saints at Giants, or see the full NFL slate. Prices move, so check the current forecast before Sunday, October 18.
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