Week 7 Thursday Night Football Preview: New England vs Chicago
October 19, 20265 min readUpdated October 19, 2026
Chicago and New England both played on Sunday, October 18, which makes Week 7's Thursday Night Football opener a short-week game between two teams that each average more than 130 rushing yards per game. The Bears won 31-23 in Atlanta; the Patriots beat the New York Jets 26-19. Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 22 at Soldier Field in Chicago, on Amazon Prime Video.
The matchup at a glance
| Matchup | Market favorite | Our read | Kickoff (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots at Bears | Bears 60% | Lean | Thu 8:15 |
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
The market
As of October 19 at 1:25 PM ET, the market's implied probability favors Chicago at 60%, with New England at 41%. That is a narrow margin rather than a clear favorite. A 60% implied probability means the market prices Chicago as the more likely winner while still pricing a meaningful chance that New England wins.
The numbers
Chicago carries the heavier ground game of the two, averaging 160.7 rushing yards per game this season to New England's 130.7, as of October 19. Both defenses have been similar against the run: Chicago allows 90.5 rushing yards per game, New England 91.8.
Through the air the two sit close together. New England averages 243.5 passing yards per game and Chicago 227.7, while New England allows 209 passing yards per game and Chicago 211.8. Chicago has scored 18 touchdowns in six games, New England 16.
Our take: with each run game meeting a run defense that has held, third down is where the two profiles separate. Chicago converts 45.5% on third down this season, New England 40.5%.
By our read, recent form favors the visitor. New England is 4-1 in its last five, scoring 25.2 points per game and conceding 20, a run that includes the 26-19 home win over the New York Jets on Sunday, October 18. Chicago is 3-2 over the same stretch (playing several games without starting QB Caleb Williams), scoring 18.2 and conceding 16.4, and won 31-23 at Atlanta on Sunday, October 18.
Each quarterback's most recent line came that same day. Drake Maye threw for 235 yards and three touchdowns on 32 attempts against the Jets on October 18, and has 11 passing touchdowns against seven interceptions this season. Caleb Williams threw for 305 yards and a touchdown at Atlanta on October 18, with three passing touchdowns and one interception on the season.
The player markets
Three player markets listed on the matchup page, with the implied probability each currently carries. Each of these markets pays $1 if the player scores a touchdown and pays nothing if he does not, in which case the full price paid is lost.
D'Andre Swift to score a touchdown is priced at 59%. Swift has six rushing touchdowns on 94 carries this season and scored twice at Atlanta on October 18.
Rhamondre Stevenson to score a touchdown is priced at 49%. Stevenson has two rushing touchdowns on 71 carries this season and ran 14 times for 36 yards against the Jets on October 18.
A.J. Brown to score a touchdown is priced at 38%. In his first game back off the IR, Brown has six catches for 53 yards on 14 targets this season, 10 of those targets coming on October 18 for 27 yards.
New to event contracts?
Fanatics Markets provides a place where you can trade event contracts on real-world outcomes. A price is the market's implied probability — a 60-cent contract implies about a 60% chance. If the outcome happens, the contract pays $1. If it does not, the contract pays nothing and you lose the 60 cents you paid.
See the Thursday night markets
New England at Chicago kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 22 at Soldier Field. See markets for Patriots at Bears, or see the full NFL slate.
Not available in all states. 21+. Any trades shown are illustrations, not trade recommendations, and subject to change. Concerned about your trading? Get specialized support from Birches Health nationwide. Visit https://bircheshealth.com/fanatics-markets, call (833) 483-3838 or email [email protected].