College Football Week 11 Preview: Texas vs LSU and more
College football Week 11 predictions: the market's implied probabilities, kickoff times and season numbers for Texas at LSU and nine more Saturday games.
November 11, 202611 min readUpdated November 12, 2026
Texas, No. 6 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, visits No. 21 LSU on Saturday, November 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET, the headline game of Week 11 of the 2026 college football season. As of November 11 at 12:38 PM ET, the market's implied probability favors LSU at 62%, with Texas at 38%.
The slate at a glance
Georgia at 87% carries the highest implied probability of the ten featured games, and Wake Forest and SMU sit level at 50% each. Price band classifies the implied favorite by its implied probability. Toss-up covers 55% or below, and Slight favorite covers 56 to 64%. Clear favorite covers 65 to 79%, and Lopsided covers 80% or above. All ten kick off Saturday, November 14.
| # | Matchup | Market favorite | Price band | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No. 6 TEX at No. 21 LSU | LSU 62% | Slight favorite | Sat 7:30 p.m. ET |
| 2 | No. 18 USC at No. 9 IND | Indiana 72% | Clear favorite | Sat 3:30 p.m. ET |
| 3 | No. 22 MIZZ at No. 1 UGA | Georgia 87% | Lopsided | Sat 3:30 p.m. ET |
| 4 | FLA at No. 11 UK | Kentucky 61% | Slight favorite | Sat 6:15 p.m. ET |
| 5 | No. 12 TTU at No. 25 OKST | Oklahoma State 61% | Slight favorite |
Texas at LSU
LSU is the market's implied favorite at 62%, with Texas at 38%: a Lean. The two meet at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 14 at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. Texas and LSU both went 3-2 across their last five games.
Why Texas at LSU matters for the playoff
Texas sits No. 6 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, LSU No. 21. Texas won 34-20 at Missouri on November 7. LSU lost 13-31 at home to Alabama the same weekend, and lost 35-34 at Kentucky on October 10. A result here moves the SEC and playoff races.
Texas vs LSU by the numbers
LSU has thrown for 324.9 yards per game this season and run for 179.2. Texas has allowed 179.8 passing yards and 100.3 rushing yards per game. LSU converts 50% on third down, Texas 40.3%. Across their last five games LSU scored 35.8 points per game, Texas 29.4.
What the market says about Texas at LSU
Texas at 38% and LSU at 62% are the two sides of the game-winner market. LSU plays at Tiger Stadium, where home-field advantage could be part of the price.
See markets for LSU vs Texas.
USC at Indiana
At 72%, Indiana is the market's implied favorite, with USC at 28%: a Clear favorite. Kickoff is 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 14 at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. Indiana went 4-1 across its last five games, and USC went 3-2.
Why USC at Indiana matters for the playoff
Indiana is No. 9 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, USC No. 18. Indiana last played on October 31, a 23-16 home win over Minnesota, and won 13-6 at Michigan on October 24. USC beat Ohio State 30-18 at home on October 31. The result shapes the Big Ten and playoff races.
USC vs Indiana by the numbers
Indiana has allowed 75.6 rushing yards and 183.7 passing yards per game this season. USC has gained 294.4 passing yards per game and 129.3 on the ground. Indiana conceded 14.6 points per game across its last five, USC 25.4.
What the market says about USC at Indiana
USC is priced at 28% and Indiana at 72% in the game-winner market. Indiana is home in Bloomington and USC is on the road, and home-field advantage could be a factor in the price.
Prices are on the Indiana vs USC page.
Missouri at Georgia
Georgia is the market's implied favorite at 87%, with Missouri at 14%: Lopsided. That is the highest figure of the ten games here, 3 points above Miami Florida's 84%. Georgia hosts at Sanford Stadium in Athens at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 14.
Georgia, No. 1 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, won 42-7 at Ole Miss on November 8 and has run for 210.7 yards per game this season. No. 22 Missouri lost 20-34 at home to Texas on November 7 and has allowed 234.7 passing yards per game.
See markets for Georgia vs Missouri.
Florida at Kentucky
Kentucky hosts Florida at Kroger Field in Lexington at 6:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 14. The market's implied probability favors Kentucky at 61%, with Florida at 39%: a Lean. Kentucky is No. 11 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Florida is unranked.
Florida has lost four of its last five games, scoring 15.6 points per game in that run and conceding 31.4, including a 7-23 home loss to Oklahoma on November 8. Kentucky went 4-1 across its last five and converts 34.9% on third down.
Kentucky's loss in that stretch was 6-34 at Tennessee on November 7. Prices are on the Kentucky vs Florida page.
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State closes Saturday's board at 9:30 p.m. ET as the market's implied favorite at 61%, with Texas Tech at 40%: a Lean. The two meet at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater on November 14.
Oklahoma State, No. 25 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, hosts No. 12 Texas Tech. Oklahoma State has thrown for 339.1 yards per game and scored 49.2 points per game across its last five, including a 66-28 win at Kansas State on November 7.
Texas Tech has allowed 287.0 passing yards per game and won 53-48 at home over West Virginia on November 8. See markets for Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech.
Utah at Arizona
Utah beat BYU 28-20 on November 7, and the market's implied probability now favors Utah on the road at 56%, with Arizona at 44%: a Lean. Kickoff is 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 14 in Tucson. Utah is No. 2 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, and Arizona is unranked.
Utah has won five in a row. Utah has run for 215.4 yards per game this season, and Arizona has thrown for 322.9 per game. Arizona won 29-28 over TCU on November 7. The Arizona vs Utah page carries the game-winner market.
Duke at Miami
The market's implied probability favors Miami (Florida) at 84%, with Duke at 17%: Lopsided. They kick off at 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 14. Miami is No. 7 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Duke is unranked.
Duke won 41-3 at NC State on November 7 and conceded 14.6 points per game across its last five. Duke has allowed 95.6 rushing yards and 186.6 passing yards per game this season. Prices are on the Miami Florida vs Duke page.
Baylor at BYU
At 73%, BYU is the market's implied favorite over Baylor, which sits at 28%: a Clear favorite. The two meet at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 14 at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo. BYU is No. 10 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings.
BYU converts 50.9% on third down this season and lost 20-28 at Utah on November 7. Baylor has thrown for 277.8 yards per game and allowed 235.9, and won 42-31 at home over Iowa State on November 7. See markets for BYU vs Baylor.
Northwestern at Ohio State
Ohio State lost 28-41 at home to Oregon on November 7 and is the market's implied favorite at 81% against Northwestern, which sits at 20%: Lopsided. Kickoff is 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 14 at Ohio Stadium in Columbus.
Ohio State is No. 20 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, and Northwestern is unranked. Ohio State has allowed 97.1 rushing yards and 189.9 passing yards per game this season. Northwestern has run for 190.2 yards per game and lost 10-24 at home to Iowa on November 8.
Prices are on the Ohio State vs Northwestern page.
Wake Forest at SMU
Wake Forest and SMU are both priced at 50% in the game-winner market, the one Toss-up on this week's board. The two open the day at 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 14 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas.
Wake Forest, No. 13 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, has won five in a row, scoring 52.8 points per game and conceding 6.2 in that run. The most recent was a 77-0 home win over Merrimack on November 7.
SMU is unranked. SMU has thrown for 321.6 yards per game and won 51-28 at home over Virginia Tech on November 7. See markets for SMU vs Wake Forest.
New to event contracts
A contract priced at 62% costs 62 cents. If the outcome happens, the contract pays $1. If it does not, it pays nothing and you lose the 62 cents you paid.
See the Week 11 markets
Fanatics Markets provides a place where you can trade event contracts on real-world outcomes, including the game-winner market for each of the ten games above. See the full college football slate for every kickoff on Saturday, November 14.
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