Week 4 Monday Night Football Preview: Atlanta vs New Orleans
October 5, 20264 min readUpdated October 8, 2026
New Orleans and Atlanta play on Monday night, October 5 with identical 1-2 records and opposite identities. The Saints move the ball through Tyler Shough. The Falcons have run for 519 yards in three games. The market has not separated them, and the numbers below show why.
The matchup at a glance
| Matchup | Market favorite | Read | Kickoff (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons at Saints | Saints 53% | Toss-up | Mon 8:15 PM |
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
The market
As of Monday afternoon, New Orleans is the market's implied favorite at 53% at home, with Atlanta at 48% on the road. In our read, that is a toss-up: the current forecast does not commit to either side.
The numbers
Both teams are 1-2. New Orleans has scored 27 points per game and allowed 27.7. Atlanta has scored 17 and allowed 22.7. New Orleans won at Baltimore 24-17 on September 20, then lost 27-35 at home to Las Vegas on September 27. Atlanta beat Green Bay 35-14 on September 25, a week after a 3-34 home loss to Carolina on September 20.
Atlanta's path
Atlanta has rushed for 519 yards in three games, an average of 173 rushing yards per game. Bijan Robinson carried 29 times for 194 yards and two touchdowns at Green Bay on September 25, and has 349 rushing yards on 66 attempts this season. New Orleans has allowed 386 rushing yards across its three games.
Michael Penix Jr. threw for 256 yards with one touchdown and one interception on 25 attempts in that Green Bay win. Drake London is the passing game: 274 receiving yards on 15 receptions this season, 194 of them on nine catches against Green Bay.
New Orleans' path
Tyler Shough has thrown for 917 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions this season, including 255 yards and four touchdowns on 42 attempts against Las Vegas on September 27. Atlanta's defense has allowed 789 passing yards in three games, an average of 263 passing yards per game, while conceding 143 rushing yards all season.
Chris Olave leads New Orleans with 375 receiving yards on 27 receptions, and caught nine passes for 107 yards on September 27. Juwan Johnson caught eight passes for 53 yards and two touchdowns in the same game, and has three receiving touchdowns this season.
What the market is weighing
New Orleans has converted 53.2% on third down this season. Atlanta has converted 34.3%. In our read, that gap is the clearest separation in the two profiles, and it sits against a venue note that cuts the other way: each team's only win came on the road, and Atlanta's heaviest defeat, 3-34 to Carolina on September 20, came at home.
In our read, the forecast comes down to which mismatch shows up. Atlanta's run game meets a New Orleans defense that has allowed 386 rushing yards in three games. Shough's passing meets a defense giving up 263 passing yards per game.
The player markets
The matchup page lists anytime-touchdown markets on three of the players above. Chris Olave sits at 41%, Alvin Kamara at 39% and Drake London at 39%. Each is the implied probability that the player reaches the end zone on Monday night, nothing more.
Olave has one receiving touchdown this season despite his 375 yards, so his market needs New Orleans to finish a drive through him rather than through Johnson. Kamara has 51 rushing yards on 18 attempts this season and faces a defense that has allowed 143 rushing yards in three games. In our read, that makes his market more dependent on goal-line carries than on volume. London needs Atlanta to throw inside the red zone, where Robinson has taken two rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown this season.
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On Fanatics Markets you trade event contracts on real-world outcomes. A price is the market's implied probability — a 53-cent contract implies about a 53% chance. If the outcome happens, the contract pays $1. If it does not, the contract pays nothing and you lose the 53 cents you paid.
See the Monday night markets
Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Monday, October 5, and the matchup page lists 83 markets across 37 types, including the touchdown markets above. See markets for Falcons vs Saints, or see the full NFL slate.
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